The action carves out $290 billion of trade before it charges $82 billion. Priced flat, classification by country, the answer comes out more than four times too high. Working down that ladder is the entire exercise.
The carve-outs, in order
| Before any carve-out | $372.0B |
| Less Annex II exemptions | $192.5B |
| Less Section 232, no stacking | $45.0B |
| Less USMCA claims | $29.2B |
| Less Chapter 98 and 99 | $17.2B |
| Less net-of-MFN caps | $5.7B |
| Less CAFTA-DR textile claims | $0.5B |
| Duty actually charged | $81.9B |
Where it bites hardest, by chapter
| HTSUS chapter | Imports | New duty | On the rate |
| 95 Toys and sporting goods | $32B | $4B | +11.6 |
| 90 Optical and medical | $122B | $10B | +8.5 |
| 94 Furniture and lamps | $58B | $4B | +6.1 |
| 85 Electrical machinery | $563B | $9B | +1.7 |
| 84 Machinery | $797B | $8B | +1.1 |
Why a flat screen gets it wrong
The rate is per countryThere is no single forced labor rate. Each named economy carries its own, some flat, some capped net of the MFN rate, and China's stacks on the Section 301 duty it already pays.
Four separate carve-outsAnnex II exempts a long list of classifications outright, attributed country by country rather than applying everywhere. On top sit Chapter 98 programs and your USMCA and CAFTA-DR claims.
Section 232 does not stackSteel, aluminum, copper and derivatives, automobiles and parts, medium and heavy duty vehicles and parts, buses, timber and lumber. A line pays one or the other, never both.
The one number still in play
$81.9B could be as high as $115.0B. U.S. note 16(c) carves a derivative article out of the forced labor duty only where it is provided for in the Section 232 headings, and for an article classified outside chapters 72, 73, 74 and 76 that holds only where the applicable metal is at least 15% of the article's weight. $81.9B assumes every listed derivative clears that bar, $115.0B assumes none does, and the truth sits much nearer the low end because most listed derivatives are predominantly metal. Trade statistics carry no weights, so the test cannot be run against them. It can be run against an importer's own entry data, which is what the calculator on this page does.
Method and limits
Census monthly imports for consumption at HTS10 by country of origin, 36 months through July 2026, trended forward twelve months by a blended log-linear model selected on a twelve-month holdout: 0.9% aggregate error, 17.3% at country level, which is why country figures are rounded to the billion and nothing is published below chapter. Entered customs value is the ad valorem base. Rates verified line by line against 91 FR 47318 of 28 July 2026: 17 economies at 10%, 38 at 12.5%, five capped net of MFN, the European Union entering the data as its 27 member states. Carve-outs taken from the tariff schedule itself, HTSUS Chapter 99 U.S. note 52, read against the covered lists in notes 16(c), 33(b) and (g), 37 and 38(b), (c) and (i), 1,005 provisions, Revision 19 of 15 September 2026, with all fifteen economy-specific exemption lists checked country by country. The $372.0B figure is not a published estimate, it is this model's own arithmetic before any carve-out is applied, shown so the carve-outs can be sized.
USMCA and CAFTA-DR figures assume 2024 claim shares hold, and claim rates are an importer-by-importer fact. Heading 9903.94.07 exempts any automobile part an importer certifies for U.S. production or repair, which no trade dataset can see. Volumes are static, so this is exposure, not forecast collections. This is a projection of a national dataset, not a ruling on any importer's entries.